drakim
Full Member
Two hands working do more than a thousand hands clasped in prayer
Posts: 177
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Post by drakim on Dec 11, 2008 9:59:38 GMT -5
You have two envelopes on the table in front of you. In both of them, there is money. However, it is explained to you that one of the envelopes has twice the amount of money inside it as the other envelope. They are referred to as the lesser envelope and the greater envelope. But they look identical on the outside.  You have to pick one. You do so, and open it. Inside, there is 100 dollar. You don't know if you picked the greater or the lesser envelope.  Now you are given the option to either keep this money, or discard the money and choose the other envelope. If you picked the lesser envelope at first, then it would be smart for you to do this trade, as the other envelope would have twice the money, namely 200 dollars. However, if you have already picked the greater envelope, that means the other envelope only has 50 dollars, and you obviously don't want to trade for that. What do you do? |
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Post by Jeff Fuller on Dec 11, 2008 17:21:44 GMT -5
My response' "Woohoo! 100 dollars!" I'd be grateful for any amount of money anyone waqnts to give me as a gift.
Perhaps my view is what keeps people like me off those televison game shows like Deal or No Deal? ;D
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drakim
Full Member
Two hands working do more than a thousand hands clasped in prayer
Posts: 177
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Post by drakim on Dec 11, 2008 17:23:43 GMT -5
So you feel like it's too big a gamble?
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Post by Paul A. Kaiser on Dec 11, 2008 22:36:55 GMT -5
I would have to agree with Jeffon this one....
$100.00 is a good Theology Set for my library. I'm takin the money and run...
If it was $5.00 you can't even buy lunch so there is no much to loose...
I guess I'm not one who likes to take risks...
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drakim
Full Member
Two hands working do more than a thousand hands clasped in prayer
Posts: 177
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Post by drakim on Dec 12, 2008 7:49:31 GMT -5
Okay.
Now, for a little math information ^^
Since you have 100$, and your possibilities when change is 50$ or 200$, we have to look at how much of a diffrence it would make.
Should you do the change, and get 50$, then you have lost 100$ - 50$ = 50$. That means, there is a potential that you'd loose 50$.
But, should you do the change and get 200$, then you would have won 200$ - 100$ = 100$. That means, there is a potential that you'd win 100$.
So, from a mathematical purpose, it's better to change than to keep it. The winning amount of twice as big as the loosing amount, while they are both equally possible.
Here comes the strange thing though, this is true no matter what the amount of money that is involved. The win being bigger than the loose It would be true if there was 10$ or 10 000 000$ on the line. That means, (unless you hate gambling) you should ALWAYS repick, even before you know the sum involved.
That means, You should decide to repick even before you have opened up the first envelope, which sounds really strange
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Post by Paul A. Kaiser on Dec 12, 2008 10:41:58 GMT -5
I knew it was math! Death... I hate math!  In my worldview I don't want to account for math!  |
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